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DEQ.utah.gov -Utah Department of Environmental Quality

The Official Web site of the Utah Department of Environmental Quality

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Accident Scenario

The accident analyzed in this report is a severe rail accident in which one of the 4 casks carried by a typical rail shipment of spent nuclear fuel is damaged sufficiently to cause the release of a fraction of its contents. Specifically, it is assumed that 63% of the radioactive gas inventory is released, along with 0.2% of volatile solids and 0.002% of particulates (values obtained from Table D.4 of the DEIS) and 100% of the CRUD inventory.

Results

Table 5, given below, presents the results of our RADTRAN 4 analysis. The two variables in the runs are the atmospheric stability and the assumed evacuation time. In general, the more stable the atmosphere is in the event of an accident (stability class F is the most stable), the more concentrated the effects of the accident. However, the economic impacts will be greatest for accidents occurring under more neutral conditions, where released material is dispersed a greater distance.

Table 5: RADTRAN 4 Calculations: Impact of Severe (Category 6) Rail Accident in Salt Lake City, Utah
File Name Pasquill Stability Category Evacuation Time
Days		 Population Dose
person-rem		 Expected LCFs Economic Cost
2000$
utaha1.in4 A 1 6.04E+04 30.2 $590,000,000
utaha7.in4 A 7 6.10E+04 30.5 $590,000,000
utahb1.in4 B 1 6.27E+04 31.35 $2,580,000,000
utahb7.in4 B 7 6.40E+04 32 $2,580,000,000
utahc1.in4 C 1 1.24E+05 62 $10,400,000,000
utahc7.in4 C 7 1.29E+05 64.5 $10,400,000,000
utahd1.in4 D 1 2.17E+05 108.5 $20,900,000,000
utahd7.in4 D 7 2.24E+05 112 $20,900,000,000
utahe1.in4 E 1 2.64E+05 132 $23,900,000,000
utahe7.in4 E 7 2.66E+05 133 $23,900,000,000
utahf1.in4 F 1 3.52E+05 176 $1,100,000,000
utahf7.in4 F 7 3.54E+05 177 $1,100,000,000
utahavg1.in4 averaged over all 1 2.29E+05 114.5 $14,300,000,000
utahavg7.in4 averaged over all 7 2.34E+05 117 $14,300,000,000

 

The results show that, under average atmospheric conditions, a severe accident resulting in a release of a small fraction of the radioactive contents of a rail cask carrying 5-year cooled fuel will result in 115-117 additional latent cancer fatalities to the population of exposed individuals. The economic impacts associated with evacuation, interdiction, and restoration are calculated by RADTRAN 4 to be on the order of $14.3 billion dollars, ranging up to $23.9 billion. This is for a population density of 567 persons/km2, corresponding to a low-density urban area such as Salt Lake City. Population doses will scale with population density.

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